For well over a decade, the world’s largest cities have been organizing to confront a problem that they are particularly vulnerable to, even as they have largely created it (cities account for roughly 70 percent of global carbon emissions). But the conference also underscored that a vanguard of climate-conscious governments-subnational governments, to be precise-are taking decisive action. So what snow leopards should you keep your eyes peeled for in 2022 and beyond? Check out my list of six to watch closely in the year ahead.Īlthough the recent COP26 conference in Glasgow, Scotland, staged by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), produced some promising carbon-reduction pledges, none were binding on the countries that made the commitments. ![]() Barely noticed while it was happening, containerization became one of the most important technologically based disruptions of the past century. The humble shipping container drove the late-twentieth century globalization wave, upending economic sectors and even entire national economies. It took even longer for this technology to find global scale via the now-ubiquitous complex of specially modified ships, ports, cranes, tractor trailers, and railway cars that have given the container its transformative economic power. Invented in 1956, the standardized shipping container took more than a decade to prove its worth in terms of dramatically speeding up transshipment processes compared with previous methods and hence significantly lowering costs. The intermodal shipping container, a key enabler of the modern global economy, is a good example of a snow leopard. Even so, the messenger RNA laboratory research that formed the scientific basis for these vaccines goes back more than thirty years. They astonished the world for good reason, given the stark contrast between the fast pace of their development under emergency conditions and the typically slow development of other vaccines. The COVID-19 vaccines are the exception that proves the rule. Rather than occurring at lightning speed immediately after a technology is invented, disruptive impact tends to become evident during the scaling phase that follows a long, less visible gestation period of testing and experimentation. But it extends beyond early emergent signs to include long-underestimated phenomena.Ĭonsider technological disruption, which we frequently envision as a thunderbolt event but more often unfolds as a gradual, under-the-radar process. Second, the snow leopard overlaps with the concept of “ weak signals,” often defined as the early signs of a trend that could alter the future. And although both the snow leopard and the black swan arrive on the scene with great impact, the snow leopard’s arrival is preceded by plenty of information- if we look hard enough-suggesting that it might be just around the corner. In contrast to the black swan, the snow leopard does not have to be a single discrete event at all. First, it is unlike the “ black swan,” which is an extreme event with no historical precedent. The snow leopard is distinct from two other concepts in global foresight. Yet just like the real cat in the wild, the figurative snow leopard is something that could sneak up and vividly remind us that it exists. Because it receives little attention in the press, the snow leopard does not appear significant enough to warrant much scrutiny as a driver of change and shaper of the future. In the world of global foresight, which is my area of focus at the Atlantic Council, I think of a “snow leopard” as a known but underappreciated-perhaps even forgotten-phenomenon. Since it is most often out of sight and therefore out of mind, the snow leopard is the kind of animal that might be forgotten-until it suddenly appears as if out of nowhere. ![]() The solitary existence, elusive disposition, and near-perfect camouflage of these beautiful cats make them a rare sighting even for locals and wildlife biologists who are trained to find them. ![]() Nicknamed the “ ghost of the mountains,” the legendary snow leopard lives at high altitudes in Central Asia.
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